If and when an influenza pandemic arises from one of the currently circulating pre-pandemic strains of Asian lineage HPAI A(H5N1), the mortality rates for the resulting human adapted pandemic strain cannot be predicted with any confidence. For example, if there are 100 confirmed cases of humans infected with H5N1 and 10 die, then there is a 10% human fatality ratio (or mortality rate). [6], H5N1 vaccines for chickens exist and are sometimes used, although there are many difficulties that make it especially difficult to decide whether vaccination will do more harm than good. Human mortality from H5N1 or the human fatality ratio from H5N1 or the case-fatality rate of H5N1 refer to the ratio of the number of confirmed human deaths resulting from confirmed cases of transmission and infection of H5N1 to the number of those confirmed cases. [36] [37] [38] This is consistent with the frequent development of a cytokine storm in the afflicted.

Affected birds usually do not appear ill, and the disease is often mild as avian influenza viral subtypes go. Thank you for signing up to Live Science. Flu drugs Tamiflu and Relenza work by inhibiting some strains of neuraminidase. "[6], H5N1 vaccines for chickens exist and are sometimes used, although there are many difficulties that make it especially difficult to decide whether vaccination will do more harm than good.

computer simulations of pandemic spread patterns (e.g. [47] As a WHO working group noted. Indeed, it is just as likely that the illnesses sustained by the rural Vietnamese were caused by some other virus, not a bird-type flu at all — or that if their ailments were due to bird contact, that the cause was any number of bird flu variants, rather than the lethal H5N1 strain being studied intensively now. [60] The H5N1 genes work together in ways we don't yet understand. Yet early projections like those above have assumed that such a lethal avian strain would surely lose genes contributing to its lethality in humans as it made the adaptations necessary for ready transmission in the human population.

In children, there may be diarrhea and vomiting, but these are not common in adults. Household representatives were asked screening questions about exposure to poultry and flulike illness ... ... A dose-response relationship between poultry exposure and flulike illness was noted: poultry in the household (odds ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-1.12), sick or dead poultry in the household but with no direct contact (odds ratio, 1.14; 95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.23), and direct contact with sick poultry (odds ratio, 1.73; 95% confidence interval, 1.58-1.89). There exists no reliable prediction of the mortality rate of an H5N1 pandemic, and it would be irresponsible to confine planning to only optimistic assumptions out of step with the currently observed case fatality ratio. Human cases of H5N1 avian influenza occur occasionally, but it is difficult to transmit the infection from person to person.

If it's a quarter and one percent, that's 16 million dead; if it's a half and five percent, it's 160 million dead. Other risk factors include visiting a live poultry market and having prolonged, unprotected close contact with patients infected with HPAI Asian H5N1.. For some HPAI Asian H5N1 cases, the source of exposure is unknown. Many human victims of the current H5N1 influenza have been blood relatives (but rarely [42] spouses) of other victims. Background: [61].

This strain caused asymptomatic infections in humans and may have died out,[17][18] like the 1959 strain, so that its low mortality level would have little value for predicting the mortality rate of a pandemic evolving from existing HPAI A(H5N1) strains. Reverse DNA techniques have since made a vaccine possible, and several H5N1 vaccines have been tested and are in production in at least limited quantities.

Likewise, annual flu vaccination includes inoculation against a type-A human H1N1 flu, leading to the possibility that the annual flu shot or Flumist inoculation might confer some immunity against H5N1 bird flu infection, and indeed testing the blood of volunteers to look for immune response to H5N1 found that some blood samples showed immunity, but more of the blood samples of persons who had received the flu shot showed an immune response.[40].

He also noted that Palese's study refers to H5N1 studies in Hong Kong, not H1N1 as Osterholm claims. To receive email updates about this page, enter your email address: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Find NCBI SARS-CoV-2 literature, sequence, and clinical content: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sars-cov-2/.

The global case fatality ratio looks only to the official tally[28] of cases confirmed by the WHO. That means the death rate would be lower.

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